U.S. Commercial Real Estate Is Headed Toward a Crisis

The risks of U.S. commercial banks being overexposed to commercial real estate (CRE) have intensified as the global pandemic upended long-held economic assumptions of perpetually subdued inflation, low interest rates, and in-office work. An analysis from The Conference Board suggests that in the next two years, more than $1 trillion in CRE loans will come due, and an increasing number of banks, mostly regional and community banks, risk having insufficient capital cushions. Executives should take steps now — including examining banking relationships, extending debt maturities, and securing adequate working capital — to mitigate the potential fallout.