Thanksgiving travel could be snarled across the Great Lakes snowbelts, as the FOX Forecast Center tracks what it expects to be the most significant lake-effect snow event of the season thus far, beginning Wednesday and lasting through Thanksgiving Day and into Black Friday.
Wind gusts of 50 mph will be possible across Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, as well as places downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario in Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and western New York, which will create periods of whiteout and life-threatening driving conditions through Friday.
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued Winter Storm Watches for those locations beginning Wednesday, with most lasting through Friday evening. Confidence from computer forecast models continues to increase that Michigan’s Upper Peninsula will see snowfall that will be measured in feet, all told.
The NWS office in Marquette advised people in Michigan’s UP to alter their holiday plans and avoid traveling on Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.
This snowmaking storm will follow a system out of the Northern Plains that is expected to bring mostly rain to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Snow will likely be confined to the Dakotas and Minnesota, with the potential for a wintry mix by Wednesday, which will be driven by a fast-moving system out of the Northern Plains.
That initial round of moisture will lift back into Canada sometime on Wednesday, but arctic air is expected to wrap behind that system, creating the conditions for significant lake-effect snow in Michigan’s UP.
The changeover from rain to snow itself could create hazardous driving conditions, although the exact timing of the changeover is not completely clear.
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Those who need to travel in the area on Wednesday afternoon should stay updated with the latest forecasts.
By Thanksgiving Day, lake-effect snow will be fully underway across the UP, and snow bands could be intense and long-lasting.
Marquette could see between 2 and 3 feet of snow through Friday, although snow totals will be highly dependent on wind direction.
Meanwhile, the FOX Forecast Center said forecast uncertainty is higher around Lakes Erie and Ontario. But currently, computer forecast models are coming into agreement that the heaviest snow bands will set up over counties just south of Buffalo, New York, blanketing places around Dunkirk and Jamestown.
Winds are expected to shift on Friday and push snow bands farther south, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Some snowbelt locales in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and western New York could see a foot of snow or more through Black Friday.